Tuesday, March 18, 2014

And they're off.....the 2014 Calcutta is ready to roll.

Dos Amigos
The 2013 Calcutta champions, the Three Amigos celebrated their second championship and first in 12 years on Tuesday evening at Calcutta HQ. The coveted yellow jacket was looking just fine on Bill the Cat who wore a nice light yellow polo to accentuate the coveted garb. Partner in crime DSS held the Chalise with pride as a tear glistened in his eye.

The 16th annual Calcutta kicked off in fine fashion with the usual pomp and pageantry in a way that only a long-standing event like this can. Freddie the G returned to steer the Catholic Boyz ship after a rough effort in last year's tournament. Newcomer Zack "Attack" Wagner bid with authority all night as the Bunch's newest member. In a last ditch effort to win their first Calcutta the Commish switched strategies and sat down to let assistant "Shooter" Besaw run the picket fence and handle drafting duties all night long.

As expected, Artie took over the lead for the Win-Docs, who quietly spent the most money on two four seeds in Calcutta history. The Elders did not hit the lavatory until the 1:45 mark in what was probably the most unlikely occurrence of the evening.

In looking at the data from the last 15 years, the average wins for the Calcutta champion is 12.2, so having two to three low seeds that can carry through to the Elite Eight can get you in the money...this is what has set the stage for this year's morning line. The ASR for 2014 was very close as the range went from 7.9 to 9.0, hardly a big spread. For comparison purposes last year's spread went from a low of 7.4 to a high of 10.4. The champion Amigos had a 7.8 ASR, 2012 champion Counselors had a 7.5 and the 2011 co-champs were at 7.8 (Bunch) and 8.1 (Catholic Boyz), respectively

So without further adieu.....the morning line, Average Seed Ratings (ASR) and your morning line favorite is.....drum roll.....

The Counselors are our morning line favorite
The Counselors (4-1, 9.0 ASR). So why after explaining that an ASR around the upper 7s, low 8s do we make a 9.0 ASR team the morning line favorite? Because I can of course. What I like about the Counselors, other than that sharply-dressed Modeas fellow, is they are the only squad with a 1 (Virginia for a paltry 31 ) and 2 (Wisconsin) seed other than the defending champs. If they run both to the final four that's 8 wins and 4-UCLA picks up a couple wins, they are just two wins away from that magic 12 number. A win by 8-Gonzaga would be huge-ah and the 11-seed out of the Midwest Region is no slouch. Sleeper pick: 11-seed MW (Iowa/Tennessee)

Shooter and Commish
The Commish & Associate (6-1, 8.0 ASR). With a two seed (2-Kansas) and two three seeds (Duke and Creighton), Shooter did the Commish proud, who sat out the bidding for the first time in 15 years. A couple of wins out of 7-Oregon or 9-George Washington both who came cheaply could propel the Commish into the upper division for the first time in years. Sleeper Pick: 10-Stanford who has a 36 BPI rating at ESPN, is a sneaky good high seed.

Dos Amigos (7-1, 8.3 ASR). The Amigos seemed to be off-kilter all evening. Could it be the loss of the third Amigo will take its toll on the defending champs? Were they out too late drinking out of the Chalise last night? They came in like a lion and went out like a lamb, although taking St. Joseph's on St. Joseph's Day has to count for something, no? Went big early on 1-Arizona (42 big ones) and 2-Michigan, but after those two only 5-St. Louis and 7-New Mexico can help this squad. But they could ride the coattails of their big two to some serious wins, so don't count them out to quickly. Sleeper Pick: 10-St. Joe's.

Win-Docs (8-1, 8.5 ASR). Don't be fooled by the high ASR.  The #4 seeds in this tournament are very dangerous and the Win-Docs are counting on 4-Michigan State and 4-Louisville to run deep in the tourney.If they don't this squad is toast. Will need wins out of 5-Oklahoma, 8-Colorado and 9-Kansas State to make any noise whatsoever. Could grab a piece of the show if one of the four seeds makes the final. Sleeper Pick: 11-Providence is playing good hoops and coming into the tourney on a roll wherein UNC could be vulnerable.

He's baacck (for the Catholic Boyz)

Catholic Boyz (8-1, 9.1 ASR). It was good to see Freddie back in the saddle leading his squad through the winding road of draft night. He has a sneaky good squad that doesn't look so hot on paper, but that's when Fred can go all Krueger on us. 2-Villanova is his anchor and has a pretty decent draw in the East and will likely head to the familiar environs of MSG for the regional semis. 6-Ohio State has a decent draw and could feast on a poor shooting Syracuse team although it will likely feel like a road game. 4-San Diego State is not as well known in these parts, but they're as good a team as any in the tourney. They're ranking one spot higher than Michigan in the BPI's, so there's that.  Sleeper Pick: 12-Harvard. Stone cold lock to steal a win.

Tax Men, Wichita State, Love Affair

Tax Men (10-1, 7.9 ASR). It's deja vu all over again as they'll ride the 1-Wichita State train for the second straight year. They also sport the lowest ASR in the draft and relish the long shot role on Calcutta eve. With four teams in the 4-6 seed range, two wins from each of those four teams could put the Tax Men right back in that Catbird seat they know so well. 5-VCU is a well-coached squad and 12-North Dakota State is very underrated. It wouldn't surprise me if the tax guys are drinking out of the Chalise come next March. Sleeper Pick: 12-North Dakota State.

Thank you for being a friend. ~The Elders
Elder Statesmen (10-1, 8.4). The Elders was busy finishing their early bird dinner and didn't win a bid until halfway through the Calcutta. With plenty of money to spend late they gathered two very good 3-seeds in Iowa State and Texas, although I like Iowa State a whole lot more. Will need help from mid-level seeds 8-Memphis and 9-Pitt to make any noise in this year's Calcutta. They've been in this spot before so it's hard to count them out completely. Sleeper Pick: 14-Western Michigan (reverse jinx at work here).

Zack Attack did well in his first Calcutta (thanks for the donation)
Bunch of Chieftans (15-1, 8.5 ASR). It was trial by fire for the newcomer, but he held his own and has the top seed in the tourney (1-Florida) who could waltz right through this thing for 6 wins which is halfway home in most years. 8-Kentucky could awaken at any moment and go on a run for Coach Cal, so it wouldn't be a bad bet to throw a few shekels at the Chieftans at those odds. Cincinnati will have to avoid the 5-12 first round upset that happens every year and 7-UConn likely has a reunion with old Big East date Villanova in the B-Lo. Sleeper Pick: 9-Oklahoma State. Saw them play a couple times and when they are playing together....watch out.

So that's a wrap on the morning lines, folks. The listing of all of the teams is on top of the right sidebar under the "2014 Results to Date" link which will be updated after each day's results. It looks like one of the most evenly-matched Calcuttas in recent years and this NCAA tournament is wide-open.  Hope everyone enjoyed themselves and Good Luck!

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