Onward to the morning line.
Vegas had some serious data to consider when setting this year's morning lines. History, experience, draft strategy, average seed rating and this year, late Covid player scratches (hello Georgia Tech and Oklahoma). But in the end they landed on the low seed rating of the Counselors and the opportunity to advance deep into the regionals. We also prepared the morning line using the actual probability points (math nerd) to set a real line.
Counselors tapped morning line favorites at 3-1
Working the phones all night like it was NFL free agency or Billy Beane's secret weapon, the barristers worked like clockwork to secure two 3-seeds and three 5-seeds over the course of the evening. If Covid-strapped Kansas can recover, they could carry 5 teams through to the first round and win a 4-5 game and they have four into the regionals where anything can happen.
Can they handle the morning line pressure, they've wilted before but this is a new dawning.
ASR: 7.5 Sleeper: Morehead State
No change to the Elders strategy, secure second choice on the ML at 7-2
A lot of firsts last night, but no bathroom breaks takes the cake. The Elders held there age-old middle seed strategy, with lowest seed being Arkansas (3). Love the Oklahoma State (4) pick and solid middle seeds in Clemson (7) and Oregon (7). Also favored in five first round games.
ASR: 7.9 Sleeper: Santa Barbara
Solid draft night from the Catholic Boyz, albeit off script
Fred had to go off script with his normal strategy when the institutions most likely to be drafted by the Boyz were scooped up by other teams. Bad break with GT best player off for the first two games, but solid low seeds in Houston (2) and defending champ Virginia (4). Some middle seeds in UConn, UNC and Tech need to make second round noise. Morning line at 6-1.
ASR: 8.3 Sleeper: Georgetown
Amigos bid high, bid hard, rate a chance at 8-1
Coming off a 2019 co-championship, the Amigos went right after it early and put their stack of chips right into the middle of the table with a Gonzaga (1) - Ohio State (2) championship tilt which would earn them 11 points. Totally doable, but they're all in with nothing lower than a 10-seed (Virginia Tech), so they'll need at least one upset and the top two to carry through to hit the board. Highest ASR, but on purpose.
ASR: 10.5 Sleeper: Iona
Slayers spend early, wait for late dinner
They weathered the early spending spree going big with Illinois (1) and Iowa (2) citing the strength of the B1G in 20-21. The Slayers sat patiently at the Wall and waited for some late night bargains in Colorado (5) for $6 (!), a 12-seed for $1 and a tough 11-seed play-in opponent in UCLA or Michigan State. Big Ten or bust for the Slayers. They earned a 9-1 morning line, which may be the value bet of the Calcutta early betting.
ASR: 9.4 Sleeper: Play-in winner
Win-Docs sure were in close quarters
Making sure all three got in the video screen all evening long, it was fun to watch the muted gang of three trying to piece together a team that can make some Calcutta noise. Their last outright title was in 2016 (shared a title in 2018) so they're out for blood. Lot of faith in the Nate Oats-led Tide (2) and Huggy Bear's Mountaineers (3). Middle seeds San Diego State and Florida will have to perform to get them into the money. Morning line set at 10-1.
ASR: 7.9 Sleeper: Winthrop
Chieftans sift through rubbish, find some aluminum, 11-1 on the ML
It was garbage hunting time for the Chiefs with color commentary all night long. The politically-incorrect squad booked a 1-seed in Michigan and then was at the close out sale the rest of the evening. With no lower than a 13, it does give them an outside chance. Covid-player issue in Oklahoma (8) (whoops) and will need Purdue (4) to carry a big weight for this squad.
ASR: 8.3 Sleeper: Ohio
Commish rounds out morning line as big longshot
When you only win one title since 1999 you deserve to be 30-1. Even with administrative help, the Commish (30-1) struggled keeping things straight (Alzheimers?). Made his annual over-bid on the Cuse (11) to hold historic form. Still has five teams that should be first round favorites, albeit two are 8-seeds. Got a break in Loyola-Chicago (8) facing G-Tech losing its best player and an LSU (8) team that came off a strong showing in the SEC tourney. But let's face it, its Baylor or bust for the Commish.
ASR: 8.4 Sleeper: LSU
That's a wrap for the morning line, we'll chime back in after the first round and will keep the scorecard updated in the upper right corner of the blog.
Cheers and Good Luck.
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